What’s the likelihood of the company going bankrupt?

Statistical check Of Corporate Solvency (Altman Z-score)

After suffering the heavy losses in few of my earlier stocks in Chinese companies, I was away from the stock market. Few weeks were very painful to  overcome the fear of investment. Though, the reason of the stocks got bankrupt, were simple. Both the companies – China Agritech (CAGC) & Wonder Auto (WATG) was a fraud and de-listed from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

So, What’s the Likelihood of company going bankrupt?

Here comes the Altman Z-score to gauge the possibility of solvency a corporate (credit-strength test) for publicly traded manufacturing company.

What is the ‘Altman Z-Score’?

Altman Z-score is based on 5 financial ratios that are calculated from the company balance sheet found in quarterly statements.


Risk Of Solvency

For manufacturing sector z-score= 1.2A + 1.4B + 3.3C + 0.6D + 1E

For non-manufacturing sector z-score= 6.56A + 3.26B + 6.72C + 1.05D

Where A, B, C, D and E are following parameters:


A= Working Capital / Total Assets [Liquid assets measurement]

 

B = Retained Earnings / Total Assets [Profitability Measurement]

 

C = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets [Operating efficiency Measurement]

 

D = Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities [Valuation measurement]

 

E= Sales/ Total Assets. [Asset turnover measurement]


 

My Notes on Altman Z-Score check

  • Altman z-score is a likelihood and not a prediction. The score measures the probability of default due to the financial distress based on the current financial statistics of the company.
  • I invest strategically for the long-term. Though, I have many example where this proved incorrect. So, I consider this an important information.
  • This is not full-proof test. It’s rather for statistical satisfaction. I do due diligence on 7-checks of highly effective investors. Stay tuned for next posts.

 

At what frequency need to calculate Altman Z-Score?

Since the price of the stock changes in market, I calculate it before buying. (actually, on many website, it is readily available). I check sites like morningstar, marketwatch, or simply Google. Easy isn’t it?

These 2 transactions made me millionaire!

As I shared in previous post, my first buck in Wall Street stocks was like a gamble. It was putting all my hard-earned money into the stock market – without any experience or knowledge about the business. It was making of a millionaire by accident!

 

Bought apple shares instead of an iPod – in 2003

 

Apple advertisements were very appealing (and still are.)  Whether, it was Mac or iPod I wanted to own. I wanted to grab an iPod as it was so fancy for me.

On a bright summer day in Brussels, I went to the Media Markt to buy my dream – an iPod. I was impatient to start using waiting at the cash counter to pay. But, at the very last moment, I changed my mind after looking the tagline of the Apple advertisement – “Think Differently”. Following the new thought, I left the shop without purchase and  reached to the broker to buy shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) worth 450$. I got 24 shares at the price of 19$ per share, plus broker commission.

It was a good long-term investment!

Including 2 stock splits of 7:1 and 2:1 and many quarterly dividends, It is over 40,000 € profit!
( I had no idea or insight of the stock market when I put all saving in AKS shares! )

My second investment in an unknown steel company resulted a huge profit of 843,000 $ !

 

I did not have to wait for my next investment. (Though, I knew nothing about investments, and it was not a planned purchase).

Since 1995, I started the job after graduation. My savings were 50 € each month after all the expenses and paying the bills. After 2-3 years, I started saving a bit more. Later, I changed some jobs and pay hikes.

Even then, my saving account had in total +/- 50,000 € (in year 2003).

In an evening, I was having a casual talks with my friend. I use to see people having profits and considered myself a novice when it comes to wealth creation ideas. This guy mentioned about steel company – AK Steel (AKS). Following my instincts, I put all my savings of many years in buying shares of the company. The stock was in penny cheap stock price 2.40 $/ share. I bought shares worth 48,000 $.

I was actually fortunate – this company turned around and it’s share was trading at 44.55 $ when I sold in November 2007.

This sell  transaction was worth 891,000 $,  Profit of 843,000 $ !

 

Millionaire by accident:

 Between 2003 and 2007 Few more short-term trades made me a millionaire by accident.

As you can imagine, I was on top of the world after making huge profit.

In 2005, I bought my first real estate apartment in Central Brussels at 90,000 € (Of course, with mortgage)

 

… I will continue my timeline investment  in my next post. Stay tunes and post your comments.

My ETF Investments

I did weeks of research and hundreds of fund sheets, GDP data and economy data from various sources. Looking on long-term horizon in current political situation needs a thorough re-look on portfolio. There are regions and instruments I found more interesting to invest on and created my ETF investment strategy 2017.

This list is regular investment mostly in ETF /index. I follow “buy on dip” approach for putting occasional lump-sum money.

After the US election, I think valuation of US market is quite high on risky level. During whole 2017, I will increase positions in Gold, Property and Precious Metal – and reducing US equity market.

World Markets Investments for 2017 (My Regular Investment Plan in Euros)


RegionETF
Emerging Mkt (+/- 32%)iShares Edge MSCI EM Min Volatility UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
Emerging Mkt (+/- 32%)iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF
Emerging Mkt (+/- 32%)iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (EUR) | CSBR
Emerging Mkt (+/- 32%)iShares MSCI Russia ADR/GDR UCITS ETF
Europe (+/- 20%)iShares Edge MSCI Europe Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)4
Europe (+/- 20%)iShares MSCI EMU UCITS ETF
Europe (+/- 20%)iShares FTSE MIB UCITS ETF (Acc) (Italy)
Europe (+/- 20%)iShares MSCI Poland UCITS ETF
Asia (China,Japan Taiwan,Vietnam (12%))iShares MSCI Far East ex Japan UCITS ETF
Asia (China,Japan Taiwan,Vietnam (12%))Amundi ETF MSCI China UCITS ETF
Asia (China,Japan Taiwan,Vietnam (12%))iShares MSCI Australia UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (USD)
Asia (China,Japan Taiwan,Vietnam (12%))iShares Core MSCI Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF (Acc)
Asia (China,Japan Taiwan,Vietnam (12%))iShares MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (USD)
Asia (China,Japan Taiwan,Vietnam (12%))iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (EUR)
Asia (China,Japan Taiwan,Vietnam (12%))iShares Nikkei 225 UCITS ETF JPY (Acc) (EUR) | CNKY
Sector Focused (8%)SPDR MSCI World Health Care UCITS ETF USD Acc
Sector Focused (8%)Global X Robotics & Artificial Intellig
USA ( 20%)iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc) EUR
USA ( 20%)iShares S&P 500 Minimum Volatility
USA ( 20%)iShares MSCI Mexico Cappd UCITS
USA ( 20%)iShares MSCI USA Small Cap UCITS ETF USD (Acc) EUR
USA ( 20%)iShares MSCI Canada UCITS ETF
World (ALL) 8%iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF
World (ALL) 8%iShares Edge MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
AfricaLyxor UCITS ETF South Africa (FTSE JSE Top 40) C-EUR
AfricaLyxor Pan Africa UCITS ETF C-EUR
Precious MetalsETFS Physical Gold
Precious MetalsETFS Physical PM Basket
Property REITiShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITS ETF (EUR)
Property REITSPDR® Dow Jones Global Real Estate UCITS ETF (EUR)
Property REITiShares European Property Yield UCITS ETF (EUR)
Property REITiShares Asia Property Yield UCITS ETF (EUR)
Review (Currently reviewing)VanEck Vectors Morningstar US Wide Moat UCITS ETF (EUR)